The 2026 sour cherry and sweet cherry season has begun in Hungary, and the first market trends are already clearly visible for buyers in the processing industry. While the sour cherry season is characterized by significant crop losses and tight supply, the sweet cherry market currently appears to be more balanced.
Weak sour cherry crop in “Érdi Bőtermő” orchards
This year, the most sought-after variety by volume is once again Érdi Bőtermő, a raw material well known and in demand in both the domestic and international processing industries.
However, this year’s crop outlook has been significantly affected by spring frost damage. The cold waves in April caused serious damage to sour cherry orchards across the country, and current harvesting results are proving extremely weak.
Based on feedback from growers, the national average yield will remain well below half of a normal crop, and in several regions it will not even reach last year’s already weak results. Compared with usual average yields, this season clearly ranks among the weaker years.
Prices are currently holding at last year’s level
Given the limited supply, a more significant price increase might be expected; however, several factors are influencing the market.
Although the forint is trading at a much stronger exchange rate than last year, and the extremely low crop volume also has an upward effect on prices, the sour cherry purchase price level has so far managed to remain at last year’s level.
During the rest of the season, price movements may be significantly influenced by supply from neighboring countries and demand from the international processing industry.
Serbia has a crop, but it is not suitable for every purpose
Serbia, another important sour cherry-producing country in the region, is in a more favorable position this year. Serbian orchards were not affected by significant frost damage, so crop volumes are developing well.
From the perspective of the processing industry, however, an important difference is that a significant part of the Serbian supply consists of varieties that are not suitable for compote production. As a result, direct substitution opportunities for the processing industry remain limited.
Poland may ease market pressure
In recent months, market participants feared that frost damage in Poland would cause major crop losses, which could generate strong demand from Polish buyers in Hungary.
Based on the latest information, however, Polish crop prospects appear more favorable than previously expected. Although the final results are not yet known, more and more market participants now expect that Poland will not face as large a shortage as was assumed in the spring.
This could moderate demand from Polish processors for Hungarian raw material and also reduce the related upward pressure on prices.
Sweet cherry supply may be sufficient
By contrast, the sweet cherry market appears to be heading into a much calmer season. This year’s crop outlook can be considered average at national level, and there are currently no signs of crop losses severe enough to cause serious supply problems.
Processing industry demand is traditionally much lower for sweet cherries than for sour cherries, so this year’s crop is expected to comfortably cover market needs.
As a result, sweet cherry prices are expected to remain moderate, and no major price movements are anticipated during the season comparable to those seen in the sour cherry market.
What should buyers watch?
Based on the current market situation, sour cherries remain the greater challenge for buyers in the processing industry. In the case of the Érdi Bőtermő variety, supply is tight and the crop is weak at national level, while international market effects have so far not caused any significant price increase.
In the coming weeks, Polish crop data and the actual harvesting results may have a decisive impact on prices and stock levels in the second half of the season. In the sweet cherry market, however, stable and predictable supply can currently be expected.