The 2026 season has presented severe challenges for domestic stone fruit growers. Successive frost waves in April and early May caused extensive damage to sour cherry and plum orchards, with this year’s total volume projected to fall drastically below historical averages. Experts and growers alike estimate that only approximately 40% of the standard crop volume will be harvested this season.
Multiple Frost Waves Disrupt Key Production Regions
The frost arrived in multiple waves, heavily impacting crop development. The first critical window occurred between April 9 and 12, when temperatures dropped to -3°C in Central Hungary and plummeted to between -5°C and -7°C in Eastern regions. This severe cold severely impacted sour cherry and plum orchards during their highly vulnerable flowering phase.
Further losses occurred during a second frost period between April 27 and May 1, which primarily devastated plantations in Central Hungary. Because the country’s two most significant cultivation zones were hit, a major nationwide supply shortfall is now locked in.
Tight Supply and Upward Price Pressure
This supply contraction is not isolated to the domestic market. Poland—one of Europe’s leading sour cherry producers—is also reporting substantial frost damage. This regional shortage is expected to drive strong Polish demand within the Hungarian market, placing further upward pressure on prices.
Compounding this price surge is the strengthening of the Hungarian Forint (HUF), which has appreciated by roughly 15% compared to last year. Since domestic growers price their output in HUF, this currency fluctuation acts as an additional inflationary factor for export markets. Given current indicators, prices this season could exceed last year’s levels by 10% to 20%. Market participants note that merely maintaining last year’s pricing would now be considered a best-case scenario.
A Positive Outlook for Apricot and Peach Supplies
Amid the broader stone fruit crisis, apricots and peaches stand out as a notable exception. The outlook for these varieties is significantly more favorable, as the blossoming period for apricot and peach trees concluded in the second half of March. By the time the April frosts hit, the young fruit had developed sufficient resilience to withstand the cold without sustaining material damage. As a result, the apricot and peach categories are tracking toward a stable, high-yield season, offering reliable sourcing opportunities for both processors and fresh-market buyers.